← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 43% | 49% | 2.25 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.31 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 27% | 27% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 61' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Olympique de Marseille |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · Bordeaux |
| 71' | ⚽ | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
| 82' | 🟥 | Pablo Nascimento Castro · Bordeaux |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| coach days |
| 212.00 |
| 916.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1585.15 | 1626.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.48 | 15.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.41 |
| league points | 35.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.98 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |