← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 52% | 47% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.34 | value: +6% |
| Guingamp win | 19% | 21% | 5.03 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 67' | 🟨 | Mehdi Merghem · Guingamp |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cheik Traoré · Guingamp |
| 78' | ⚽ | Mihailo Ristić · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.10 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.15 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 702.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1594.40 | 1465.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.07 | 17.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 42.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 16.96 | 17.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.77 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |