← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 67% | 74% | 1.45 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 14% | 4.91 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 13% | 12% | 7.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Kalidou Sidibe · Toulouse FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Thilo Kehrer · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days |
| 273.00 |
| 273.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1490.34 | 1946.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.21 | 14.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 2.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 2.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.77 |
| league points | 32.00 | 77.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | 2.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.55 |
| state index | -0.14 | 2.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |