← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 35% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 34% | 44% | 2.84 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Thiago Mendes · Lille OSC |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Valentin Eysseric · Nantes |
| 56' | ⚽ | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · Lille OSC |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Valentin Eysseric · Nantes |
| 74' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · Lille OSC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days |
| 181.00 |
| 485.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1527.29 | 1627.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.67 | 0.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 66.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.45 | 0.74 |
| league points | 31.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.30 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |