← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 65% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.21 | value: +8% |
| Angers SCO win | 12% | 15% | 7.86 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · Olympique de Marseille |
| 16' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · Olympique de Marseille |
| 23' | 🟨 | Maxime López · Olympique de Marseille |
| 26' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Olympique de Marseille |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bouna Sarr · Olympique de Marseille |
| 58' | 🟨 | Vincent Pajot · Angers SCO |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 78' | 🟨 | Bouna Sarr · Olympique de Marseille |
| 78' | 🟥 | Bouna Sarr · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| coach days |
| 910.00 |
| 2829.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1630.72 | 1546.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.44 | 7.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.42 | 0.78 |
| league points | 47.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.98 | — |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |