← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Hamel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 42% | 43% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
| Nantes win | 27% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Fábio · Nantes |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rahman Baba · Reims |
| 59' | ⚽ | Rémi Oudin · Reims |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tristan Dingome · Reims |
| 78' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 86' | 🟨 | Moussa Doumbia · Reims |
| 89' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 89' | 🟥 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Chavarria · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| 685.00 |
| 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1651.96 | 1532.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.45 | -2.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| league points | 43.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |