← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 40% | 39% | 2.43 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 30% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Lebo Mothiba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 14' | 🟨 | Nuno Da Costa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 46' | 🟨 | Lionel Carole · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 49' | 🟨 | Sanjin Prcić · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 53' | ⚽ | Youssouf Fofana · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 55' | 🟨 | Denis Bouanga · Nimes |
| 59' | 🟨 | Theo Valls · Nimes |
| 66' | ⚽ | Herve Lybohy · Nimes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Renaud Ripart · Nimes |
| 86' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Nimes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lebo Mothiba · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lamine Koné · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| coach days |
| 1231.00 |
| 988.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1590.82 | 1565.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.18 | -14.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.62 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |