← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 46% | 45% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.21 | fair |
| Dijon win | 24% | 25% | 4.09 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 85' | 🟨 | Bobby Allain · Dijon |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days |
| 135.00 |
| 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1457.87 | 1444.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.81 | -17.04 |
| eye test v1 | -1.39 | -1.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.50 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | -1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |