← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 40% | 41% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.14 | fair |
| Caen win | 29% | 30% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 20' | ⚽ | Robert Berić · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 30' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 85' | ⚽ | Lamine Ghezali · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ | Valentín Vada · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 2 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| 288.00 |
| 470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1416.60 | 1605.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.08 | -14.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 20.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -1.08 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |