← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 43% | 46% | 2.27 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.09 | fair |
| Amiens win | 25% | 24% | 3.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 34' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 41' | 🟨 | Saman Ghoddos · Amiens |
| 55' | 🟨 | Emil Krafth · Amiens |
| 55' | 🟨 | Juan Otero · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days |
| 2815.00 |
| 1566.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 1.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1549.23 | 1507.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.26 | 27.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 70.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| league points | 35.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |