← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 42% | 43% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Wylan Cyprien · OGC Nice |
| 24' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Firmin Ndombe Mubele · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days |
| 287.00 |
| 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1585.77 | 1486.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.89 | -4.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.90 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.40 | — |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |