← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.34 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 26% | 28% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Marcus Thuram · Guingamp |
| 44' | 🟥 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lebogang Phiri · Guingamp |
| 58' | 🟨 | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days |
| 252.00 |
| 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1478.09 | 1465.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.99 | 3.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| league points | 28.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 1.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |