← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 36% | 38% | 2.69 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 34% | 35% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Yann M'Vila · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 59' | 🟨 | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 70' | 🟨 | Timothée Kolodziejczak · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟥 | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mathieu Debuchy · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonathan Ikoné · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days |
| 464.00 |
| 464.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1616.64 | 1628.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.75 | 29.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 43.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.45 |
| state index | 0.04 | 1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |