← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 48% | 46% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 22% | 26% | 4.42 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 16' | ⚽ | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 68' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ellyes Skhiri · Montpellier |
| 73' | 🟥 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 80' | ⚽ | Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
| 81' | 🟨 | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days |
| 678.00 |
| 2809.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1602.64 | 1545.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.87 | 28.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.84 |
| league points | 41.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |