← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 64% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.40 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 14% | 16% | 6.74 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Olympique de Marseille |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · Olympique de Marseille |
| 69' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| coach days |
| 890.00 |
| 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1626.55 | 1593.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.57 | -26.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 44.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 24.98 | 24.40 |
| state index | 1.04 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 1.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |