← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 50% | 45% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.69 | value: +23% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 24% | 22% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 21 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 981.00 | 1194.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1562.05 | 1733.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.47 | -9.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 2.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 23.92 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |