← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 39% | 37% | 2.47 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.02 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 28% | 36% | 3.46 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Paul Lasne · Montpellier |
| 35' | ⚽ | Toma Bašić · Bordeaux |
| 39' | 🟨 | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 42' | 🟨 | Daniel Congré · Montpellier |
| 51' | ⚽ | Daniel Congré · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| coach days | 181.00 | 673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1594.95 | 1590.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.16 | -18.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |