← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 60% | 65% | 1.61 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.13 | fair |
| Dijon win | 16% | 14% | 5.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Wesley Saïd · Dijon |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Wesley Lautoa · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 457.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -2.00 |
| -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1624.63 | 1446.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.84 | -10.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 51.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | -0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.62 | — |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |