← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 35% | 40% | 2.80 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 34% | 31% | 2.85 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 31% | 28% | 3.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 85' | 🟨 | Charles Traoré · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Eboa Eboa · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 122.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1465.61 | 1532.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.91 | -1.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| league points | 18.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |