← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 49% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.03 | fair |
| Amiens win | 19% | 21% | 5.07 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 44' | ⚽ (og) | Yunis Abdelhamid · Amiens |
| 70' | ⚽ | Boulaye Dia · Reims |
| 75' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · Amiens |
| 82' | 🟨 | Boulaye Dia · Reims |
| 84' | ⚽ | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| coach days | 670.00 | 1552.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1661.94 | 1489.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.14 | 0.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 41.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.00 |
| state index | 0.92 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |