← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 80% | 77% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 7.53 | fair |
| Caen win | 8% | 11% | 12.69 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Caen |
| 56' | 🟨 | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 56' | ⚽ | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 25 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 274.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1497.98 | 2012.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.07 | -1.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | 1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 2.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.83 |
| league points | 20.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 88.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 2.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 26.46 |
| state index | -0.71 | 1.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |