← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 54% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Caen win | 18% | 18% | 5.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diomandé · Caen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Caen |
| 54' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ismaël Diomandé · Caen |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ismaël Diomandé · Caen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Max Gradel · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 238.00 | 268.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1487.17 | 1419.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.62 | -27.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |