← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Rainville
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 43% | 48% | 2.26 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 2.95 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 24% | 23% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Edgar Ié · Nantes |
| 51' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Maxime Poundjé · Bordeaux |
| 75' | 🟨 | Enock Kwateng · Nantes |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jules Koundé · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 146.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1522.07 | 1605.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.87 | -20.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.83 |
| league points | 27.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |