← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 36% | 37% | 2.69 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 32% | 33% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Didier N'Dong · Guingamp |
| 47' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 81' | 🟨 | Romain Thomas · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 114.00 | 2794.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1454.40 | 1556.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.49 | 30.15 |
| eye test v1 | -1.35 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.84 |
| league points | 15.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |