← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 46% | 50% | 2.13 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.15 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 23% | 25% | 4.19 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lebogang Phiri · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreas Cornelius · Bordeaux |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| coach days | 168.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1611.28 | 1448.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.93 | -10.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.54 |
| league points | 31.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| state index | 0.20 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |