← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 44% | 52% | 2.19 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 24% | 20% | 4.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Toma Bašić · Bordeaux |
| 29' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Toulouse FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sergi Palencia · Bordeaux |
| 70' | ⚽ | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jimmy Briand · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| coach days | 165.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1605.89 | 1492.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.06 | 15.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |