← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Hamel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 66% | 69% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.25 | fair |
| Amiens win | 11% | 12% | 8.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 25' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · Olympique de Marseille |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jordan Amavi · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 868.00 | 1538.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1603.28 | 1486.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.19 | -13.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -1.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 37.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.20 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |