← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 44% | 43% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.98 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 23% | 25% | 4.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Christophe Jallet · OGC Nice |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
| 47' | ⚽ | Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
| 72' | 🟨 | Patrick Burner · OGC Nice |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cristian López · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2787.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1538.51 | 1615.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.81 | 12.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| league points | 30.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.40 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |