← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Lesage
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 63% | 59% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.77 | value: +16% |
| OGC Nice win | 17% | 17% | 5.85 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 48' | 🟨 | Myziane Maolida · OGC Nice |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Rémi Walter · OGC Nice |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 14 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 254.00 | 1167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1673.14 | 1831.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.37 | 17.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| league points | 34.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.51 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 24.14 | 23.62 |
| state index | 0.39 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.45 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |