← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.32 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 21% | 24% | 4.70 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 35' | ⚽ | Wilfried Kanga · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefan Mitrović · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 55' | ⚽ | Wilfried Kanga · Angers SCO |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ismaël Traoré · Angers SCO |
| 87' | ⚽ | Sanjin Prcić · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian López · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 953.00 | 2780.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1593.52 | 1524.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.44 | -1.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.84 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.33 | — |
| state index | 0.83 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |