← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Feb 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 51% | 52% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.53 | fair |
| Dijon win | 21% | 25% | 4.63 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Jordan Marié · Dijon |
| 43' | 🟨 | Cédric Yambéré · Dijon |
| 50' | 🟨 | Wesley Lautoa · Dijon |
| 56' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · Olympique de Marseille |
| 72' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 73' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Olympique de Marseille |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fouad Chafik · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 12 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 38.00 | 860.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1469.33 | 1595.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.57 | -10.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |