← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 37% | 41% | 2.61 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.02 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 30% | 32% | 3.23 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Loïck Landre · Nimes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Montpellier |
| 68' | 🟨 | Rachid Alioui · Nimes |
| 73' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Montpellier |
| 77' | 🟨 | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 23 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| coach days | 1190.00 | 643.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1583.64 | 1609.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.74 | -7.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 71.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.80 |
| league points | 29.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |