← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 59% | 59% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.79 | value: +3% |
| Amiens win | 15% | 14% | 6.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | 🟨 | Alexis Blin · Amiens |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jordan Lefort · Amiens |
| 78' | 🟨 | Hatem Ben Arfa · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mehdi Zeffane · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 63.00 | 1524.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1604.12 | 1484.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.28 | -10.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |