← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 34% | 34% | 2.83 | fair |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 33% | 32% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 34% | 3.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Tristan Dingome · Reims |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jacques-Alaixys Romao · Reims |
| 59' | 🟨 | Tristan Dingome · Reims |
| 68' | ⚽ | Hyun-Jun Suk · Reims |
| 86' | ⚽ | Clinton N'Jie · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rémi Oudin · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune II |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 642.00 | 854.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1629.20 | 1593.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.27 | -13.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |