← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 35% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +6% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 35% | 35% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Kévin Monnet-Paquet · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 44' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟥 | Fábio · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟥 | Yann M'Vila · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 58' | ⚽ | Rémy Cabella · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 70' | ⚽ | Majeed Waris · Nantes |
| 81' | 🟨 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 121.00 | 425.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1533.93 | 1636.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.19 | 14.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |