← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Miguelgorry
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 65% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.74 | value: +5% |
| Amiens win | 15% | 16% | 6.63 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | ⚽ | Jason Denayer · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 73' | 🟨 | Tanguy Ndombélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 76' | 🟨 | Léo Dubois · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1518.00 | 1153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1489.51 | 1737.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.07 | 9.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| league points | 18.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 63.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.22 |
| state index | -0.56 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |