← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 35% | 42% | 2.81 | value: +17% |
| Reims win | 33% | 29% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Xavier Chavalerin · Reims |
| 38' | ⚽ | Mathieu Cafaro · Reims |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 59' | 🟥 | Papy Djilobodji · Guingamp |
| 69' | 🟨 | Hassane Kamara · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 86.00 | 635.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1469.53 | 1621.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.53 | 3.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.74 |
| league points | 14.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |