← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 42% | 39% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.29 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 28% | 35% | 3.45 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Boubacar Kamara · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Lille OSC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Rafael Leão · Lille OSC |
| 67' | 🟥 | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 70' | 🟨 | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nemanja Radonjić · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rolando · Olympique de Marseille |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 846.00 | 420.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1605.52 | 1586.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.40 | 17.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 31.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 24.93 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |