← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 42% | 49% | 2.30 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 27% | 22% | 3.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Clément Depres · Nimes |
| 34' | ⚽ | Loïck Landre · Nimes |
| 42' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 49' | ⚽ | Clément Depres · Nimes |
| 58' | 🟨 | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Briançon · Nimes |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Stéphane Bahoken · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| coach days | 1179.00 | 2763.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1585.52 | 1526.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.03 | 5.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| league points | 26.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |