← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 46% | 40% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.52 | value: +15% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 21' | ⚽ | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 43' | 🟨 | Kévin Monnet-Paquet · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 65' | 🟨 | Loïc Perrin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kenny Tete · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 23 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 415.00 | 1146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1645.96 | 1728.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.69 | -24.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 48.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 36.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.55 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |