← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Schneider
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.65 | fair |
| Caen win | 19% | 21% | 5.20 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Caen |
| 6' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · Olympique de Marseille |
| 30' | 🟨 | Casimir Ninga · Caen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jordan Amavi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 47' | ⚽ | Morgan Sanson · Olympique de Marseille |
| 49' | 🟨 | Yacine Bammou · Caen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 51' | 🟥 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Bouna Sarr · Olympique de Marseille |
| 89' | 🟨 | Baissama Sankoh · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 233.00 | 841.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1446.61 | 1598.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.33 | -41.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| league points | 18.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |