← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Hamel
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 54% | 60% | 1.79 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.53 | fair |
| Dijon win | 18% | 18% | 5.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Yann Karamoh · Bordeaux |
| 34' | 🟥 | Romain Amalfitano · Dijon |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mehdi Abeid · Dijon |
| 62' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 64' | 🟨 | Andreas Cornelius · Bordeaux |
| 71' | 🟨 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
| 71' | 🟨 | Cédric Yambéré · Dijon |
| 77' | ⚽ | Andreas Cornelius · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| coach days | 137.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1685.39 | 1539.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.08 | -4.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 25.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |