← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sun, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 37% | 40% | 2.61 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 2.97 | fair |
| Nantes win | 30% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Cheikh N'Doye · Angers SCO |
| 73' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 83' | 🟨 | Randal Kolo Muani · Nantes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Angelo Fulgini · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2760.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1517.70 | 1542.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.36 | 8.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.30 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.64 |
| league points | 20.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |