← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Delerue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 90% | 88% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 8% | 13.02 | value: +6% |
| Guingamp win | 3% | 4% | 34.91 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 2 |
| 12 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| coach days | 202.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1933.49 | 1471.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.17 | 11.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 50.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.78 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.58 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.65 | — |
| state index | 1.65 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.68 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |