← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Fri, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 57% | 56% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
| Amiens win | 17% | 18% | 5.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Juan Otero · Amiens |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · Lille OSC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Regis Gurtner · Amiens |
| 85' | ⚽ | Xeka · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Lefort · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Mendoza · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 2 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 413.00 | 1509.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1580.74 | 1495.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.95 | 0.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 37.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 23.98 | — |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |