← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 57% | 60% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.96 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 19% | 17% | 5.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Oumar Solet · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 12' | ⚽ | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Memphis Depay · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 53' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 75' | ⚽ | Moussa Dembélé · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jérémy Morel · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 86' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steven Moreira · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 199.00 | 1142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1477.43 | 1733.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.19 | -23.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 43.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 21.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.73 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |