← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Gautier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 39% | 37% | 2.52 | fair |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 33% | 35% | 2.94 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Kevin Strootman · Olympique de Marseille |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 88' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 411.00 | 837.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1638.58 | 1605.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.36 | -35.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 33.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |