← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimes win | 43% | 44% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
| Nantes win | 28% | 31% | 3.54 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟥 | Kalifa Coulibaly · Nantes |
| 64' | ⚽ | Sofiane Alakouch · Nimes |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 86' | 🟨 | Clément Depres · Nimes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade des Costières |
| coach days | 1172.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1593.12 | 1550.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.89 | 4.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| league points | 23.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 25.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |