← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Wed, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 36% | 31% | 2.72 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 34% | 37% | 2.90 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.21 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Guingamp |
| 40' | ⚽ | Felix Eboa Eboa · Guingamp |
| 47' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 81' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 86' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mehdi Zeffane · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 76.00 | 46.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1459.00 | 1622.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.76 | 69.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 11.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.12 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |