← Ligue 1 2018-19 · Tue, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 37% | 34% | 2.62 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 32% | 32% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.14 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Samuel Kalu · Bordeaux |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 74' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yann Karamoh · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2755.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1526.95 | 1612.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.31 | 12.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.80 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.80 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |